The domestic acrylic acid market is currently trapped in a stalemate. Taking East China, a key market hub, as an example, the mainstream transaction prices have stabilized at 5,450–5,500 yuan/ton recently. This apparent stability is not driven by balanced market fundamentals but by the equilibrium of opposing forces: strong cost support from firm propylene prices and sluggish downstream demand. As a result, the market has entered a phase where significant price movements in either direction are difficult. For detailed product specifications and the latest market dynamics of acrylic acid, you can visit our acrylic acid product page.
The core characteristics of the current market lie in the "strong costs, stable supply, weak demand" dynamic. Under such circumstances, trading activities are confined to a narrow range, and the sustainability of this fragile stability has become the focus of market participants. This blog will delve into the driving factors behind the current stability, analyze the key variables affecting its duration, and look into the short-term market outlook.
1. Behind the Stability: The "Two-Way Pull" Between Cost and Demand
The current stalemate in the acrylic acid market is essentially a result of the mutual restraint between cost support and weak demand. Three key factors jointly shape the current stable pattern:
1.1 Clear and Firm Cost Support from Propylene
As the core upstream raw material of acrylic acid, propylene's market performance has a direct and decisive impact on acrylic acid's cost foundation. Recently, the propylene market has shown strong momentum: week-on-week, prices in Shandong rose by 2.19%, while those in East China increased by 1.27%. The robust propylene prices have built a solid cost floor for acrylic acid, which is the core support preventing acrylic acid prices from falling further.
1.2 Moderate Supply Recovery Without Significant Pressure
With the increase in operating rates of key acrylic acid facilities such as Shandong Kaitai and Jiangsu Shengke, the overall industry capacity utilization rate has achieved a modest recovery. However, producers and stockholders have adopted rational operational strategies—focusing on flexible pricing and proactive shipments—without obvious inventory accumulation or aggressive selling behavior. Therefore, the supply-side pressure on the market remains generally controllable, which lays the foundation for price stability.
1.3 Cautious Demand Dominated by Wait-and-See Sentiment
Despite the stabilization of acrylic acid prices, downstream buyers have not shown increased activity, and the market is still dominated by cautious sentiment. End-users mainly adopt an on-demand procurement strategy, prioritizing low-priced sources to meet basic production needs, while showing little willingness for large-scale concentrated stockpiling. The lack of demand momentum has effectively curbed the upward space of acrylic acid prices, forming a balance with cost support.
Against the backdrop of "strong costs, stable supply, and weak demand," the acrylic acid market's trading is mainly driven by small and medium-sized orders, and the price range is locked in a narrow band, thus entering the current consolidation phase.
2. Can Stability Be Sustained? Focus on Three Key Variables
The current market balance is fragile, and its duration largely depends on the evolution of three core variables. Any significant changes in these variables may break the existing stalemate:
2.1 Key Guidance: The Trend of Raw Material Propylene Prices
The trend of propylene prices is the primary factor determining the cost basis of acrylic acid. Currently, the propylene market remains strong due to factors such as plant shutdowns and tight supply, providing reliable short-term cost support for acrylic acid. However, if concentrated restarts of PDH (propane dehydrogenation) units occur in the future, it may lead to a correction in propylene prices, and the cost support for acrylic acid will correspondingly weaken, potentially breaking the current price stability.
2.2 Transmission Effect: Marginal Changes in Supply and Demand
On the supply side, the overall industry operating rate is expected to show a "broadly stable with minor fluctuations" trend next week, and may slightly decline compared with this week. This moderate adjustment in operating rates will help maintain the stability of the supply pattern. On the demand side, a moderate improvement in downstream procurement willingness is expected, which may gently boost market activity. However, it is necessary to remain vigilant about unexpected changes—such as sudden shutdowns of acrylic acid plants or concentrated restocking by downstream users—which could quickly disrupt the existing supply-demand balance.
2.3 Auxiliary Factor: Market Sentiment and Timing
Currently, both upstream producers and downstream buyers generally adopt a wait-and-see attitude, which has become an integral part of the current market dynamics. If the price stabilization trend can be maintained for a period, some downstream users may gradually shift from a "wait-and-watch" stance to "on-demand procurement," thereby releasing some suppressed rigid demand and injecting mild upward momentum into the market. Conversely, if negative signals appear in the propylene market or supply side, the wait-and-see sentiment may turn into selling pressure, breaking the stable pattern.
3. Market Outlook: Consolidation Remains the Short-Term Theme
In summary, the acrylic acid market in East China is expected to maintain a consolidation pattern next week, with spot negotiation prices likely fluctuating within the range of 5,400–5,500 yuan/ton. Specifically, the cost support from propylene will remain solid, continuing to underpin acrylic acid prices at the lower end. On the supply side, although localized adjustments in operating rates may occur, the overall supply is expected to remain relatively stable. Producers and stockholders are likely to maintain stable pricing strategies, while downstream procurement willingness is anticipated to improve moderately, driving a gentle uptick in market activity. Overall, the trading sentiment is expected to remain stable, and the fragile balance of the market may be maintained in the short term.
Key Takeaways
The current stability of the acrylic acid market is a temporary equilibrium under the mutual restraint of cost and demand, rather than a reflection of balanced fundamentals. The duration of this stability depends largely on the trend of propylene prices, marginal changes in supply and demand, and changes in market sentiment. In the short term, the market will still be dominated by consolidation, but as the three core variables evolve, the stalemate pattern may be broken at any time. For enterprises in the acrylic acid industrial chain, it is crucial to closely monitor the trend of propylene prices and the dynamics of supply and demand, and adopt flexible procurement and sales strategies to respond to potential market changes. For the latest updates on the acrylic acid market, you can keep track of our acrylic acid dedicated page.
