The domestic adipic acid market kicked off 2026 by extending the upward momentum that emerged in late 2025, setting the stage for a year of cautious optimism tempered by supply-demand balancing challenges. Driven by geopolitical tensions, raw material cost hikes, and producer price firming, the market has already seen notable early-year movements—with key implications for downstream industries like PA66, PBAT, and shoe sole manufacturing. This blog unpacks the current market landscape, 2026 price forecasts, and the core factors shaping supply and demand for this critical chemical intermediate.
Early 2026 Market Rally: Geopolitics & Raw Materials Drive Gains
After a period of relative stability in early January 2026, the adipic acid market shifted into an upward gear, fueled by a confluence of global and domestic factors:
Downstream Demand Resilience: In the first half of January, the market digested previous price increases amid downstream resistance to high costs, with transactions dominated by rigid demand. This kept short-term fluctuations in check, laying the groundwork for a more sustained rally.
Crude Oil & Benzene Cost Support: Geopolitical tensions between the United States, Venezuela, and Iran triggered sharp and prolonged gains in international crude oil prices. As a key upstream feedstock, benzene prices followed suit—Sinopec raised its listed benzene prices three times in mid-January, with a cumulative increase of 300 yuan/ton to 5,600 yuan/ton. This upward pressure on raw material costs provided strong fundamental support for adipic acid prices.
Producer Price Firming: With low inventory levels and rising input costs, major adipic acid producers moved to defend margins by raising quotations. Industry leaders including Hualu Hengsheng, Anhui Haoyuan, and Hengli Petrochemical increased their one-price offers, with the maximum single increase reaching 200 yuan/ton. By mid-January, mainstream market quotations for adipic acid rose to around 7,000–7,200 yuan/ton on a telegraphic transfer (T/T) basis.
2026 Full-Year Price Forecast: Narrow-Range Fluctuations at Low Levels
Looking ahead to the entire 2026 calendar year, the domestic adipic acid market is expected to trade within a constrained range, characterized by limited volatility and muted price swings:
Projected Trading Range: The mainstream price is forecast to fluctuate between 6,500 and 7,500 yuan/ton (T/T basis) for the full year. Compared to 2025, the overall fluctuation range is likely to narrow further, with price movements unlikely to exceed 500 yuan/ton in the absence of extreme market shocks.
Key Price Drivers:
Crude Oil & Benzene Volatility: Minor price adjustments will be primarily linked to temporary spikes or drops in international crude oil prices (driven by geopolitics, OPEC+ policy, or global demand shifts) and corresponding trends in benzene costs.
Plant Operations & Inventory: Short-term supply changes—such as unplanned plant shutdowns, restart schedules, inventory accumulation at major producers, and adjustments to one-price offers—will also trigger modest price fluctuations.
Price Floor & Ceiling: Without significant disruptions to crude oil or benzene markets, the likelihood of adipic acid prices breaking above 7,500 yuan/ton or falling below 6,500 yuan/ton remains low, reflecting a market stuck in a "low-level equilibrium" pattern.
Raw Material Outlook: Benzene Market to See Balanced Growth with Mild Downward Pressure
As the primary raw material for adipic acid production, benzene’s 2026 outlook will be a key determinant of cost dynamics:
Supply-Demand Balance: The benzene industry is expected to experience simultaneous growth in supply and demand throughout 2026. While demand will rise in line with downstream chemical production, expanding supply is likely to keep the market in a balanced-to-slightly oversupplied state, potentially leading to a mild downward shift in the overall price range.
Seasonal Trends: Benzene prices are projected to follow a "low-start, mid-year rise, late-year decline" trajectory, influenced by seasonal demand fluctuations and phased mismatches between production capacity and consumption. This seasonal pattern will feed through to adipic acid cost structures, creating periodic support or pressure.
2026 Supply-Demand Dynamics: Oversupply Risks Intensify
The core challenge facing the 2026 adipic acid market will be a deepening imbalance between growing supply and subdued demand:
Supply Side: Capacity Expansion Drives Growth
New Capacity Additions: Rongsheng New Materials’ 450,000-ton/year adipic acid plant is expected to start operations as early as the second half of 2026. This will push total domestic production capacity to 4.455 million tons/year, with output set to increase compared to 2025 (the exact magnitude depends on the pace of new plant commissioning).
Import & Export Trends: Import volumes are likely to remain low, exerting minimal impact on domestic supply. Meanwhile, EU anti-dumping measures will limit export growth, leaving most of the 新增 supply to be absorbed by the domestic market. Overall, 2026 will see a continued expansion in domestic adipic acid supply.
Demand Side: Subdued Growth with Limited Upside
Key Downstream Sectors: Demand growth will be heavily dependent on new plant commissioning in downstream industries such as PA66 (polyamide 66) and PBAT (polybutylene adipate terephthalate), two major consumers of adipic acid.
Stagnant Operating Rates: The shoe sole and other traditional application industries remain in a stable but lackluster phase, with overall operating rates below 50%. This limits the potential for incremental demand growth.
Procurement Behavior: Downstream industries are expected to maintain a "just-in-time" procurement strategy driven by rigid demand, with little willingness to build inventories. The traditional peak season effect is likely to be muted, and overall demand is not expected to see significant improvement compared to 2025.
Imbalance Risk: Oversupply to Worsen
With supply set to grow faster than demand, the domestic adipic acid market is poised to face a deepening oversupply situation in 2026. This imbalance will act as a ceiling on price gains, preventing sharp rallies even amid short-term cost support.
Key Considerations for Stakeholders
For manufacturers, traders, and downstream buyers of adipic acid, 2026 requires a strategic approach to navigate the narrow-range, low-volatility market:
Cost Tracking: Monitor crude oil and benzene price trends closely, as these will be the primary drivers of short-term adipic acid price movements.
Supply Chain Flexibility: Prepare for incremental supply growth from new plants, and consider diversifying suppliers to leverage competitive pricing amid oversupply.
Demand Planning: Downstream industries should align procurement with rigid production needs, avoiding inventory buildup given the muted demand outlook.
Quality & Compliance: Amid price competition, partnering with reliable suppliers that offer consistent quality and global compliance becomes critical. For businesses seeking high-quality adipic acid solutions with a proven global track record (exported to markets including Thailand, Singapore, Korea, UAE, and Germany), trusted supply options are available to support stable production.
Conclusion: A Year of Cautious Navigation
Adipic acid’s strong start to 2026 reflects the influence of short-term geopolitical and raw material factors, but the long-term outlook is shaped by a growing supply-demand imbalance. While the market will trade within a narrow range of 6,500–7,500 yuan/ton, oversupply risks will keep prices under pressure. For stakeholders across the value chain, success in 2026 will depend on closely monitoring cost drivers, adapting to supply growth, and aligning procurement and production strategies with the subdued demand environment.
As the market evolves, partnering with experienced suppliers that can deliver consistent quality, stable supply, and global regulatory compliance will be key to mitigating risks and seizing opportunities. Explore trusted adipic acid supply solutions to support your 2026 operations amid a market defined by caution and balance.
