The start of 2026 has seen China’s chemical raw materials market enter a phase of structural weak fluctuations, dominated by off-season adjustments. Demand from the downstream detergent industry is in a traditional slack period, with enterprises delaying production resumption, and inventory clearance activities intertwining with pre-holiday stocking. No systematic upward or downward price trends have emerged yet. Notably, prices of surfactants and core detergent raw materials are showing a divergent pattern, though the overall impact on production costs remains limited as the industry focuses on destocking. Short-term price fluctuations are expected to stay narrow.
Among core chemical raw materials, some have seen slight price declines amid weak demand and inventory reduction, while others have registered mild increases driven by recovering demand and tighter supply. Currently, supply-demand dynamics are the dominant factor shaping the market landscape.
In the near term, prices are likely to stabilize with minor adjustments. Looking ahead to the post-Spring Festival period, a broader market recovery is anticipated, supported by a rebound in terminal demand.
1. Core Raw Material Price Fluctuations: Partial Declines, Mild Increases in a Few
An analysis of monitored chemical raw materials reveals a mixed price trend: 34 products recorded price declines, with most decreases below 1% and only 4 falling by more than 3%. Meanwhile, 23 products saw price increases, none of which exceeded 10%.
1.1 Price Declines: Focus on Surfactant Raw Materials
• Methyl oleate: As a core surfactant raw material, its price dropped by 4.33%, falling from ¥12,700 per ton to ¥12,150 per ton. Current mainstream market quotations are concentrated in the range of ¥12.8-13.0 per kg, consistent with the post-adjustment level.
• Hydroxylamine sulfate (99.5% content): A key surfactant intermediate, its market price in Shandong stood at ¥10,000 per ton on January 3, a month-on-month decrease of 3.23%.
• Tetraethylenepentamine: Another surfactant raw material, its price declined by 3.14%.
In addition, basic chemical products such as sulfuric acid and nitric acid also experienced minor price drops. Although these products indirectly affect the auxiliary production costs of detergents, the magnitude of declines is limited and does not significantly drag down overall costs.
1.2 Mild Increases: Driven by Detergent and Nylon Industry Demand
• Sulfamic acid: A core detergent raw material, its price rose by 5.52%, increasing from ¥3,016.67 per ton to ¥3,183.33 per ton.
• Sulfonic acid: Another core detergent raw material, its price remained stable in the range of ¥11,400-12,000 per ton, showing an overall mild upward trend.
• Adipic acid: A raw material for surfactants, its price increased by 3.88%, rising from ¥6,866.67 per ton to ¥7,133.33 per ton. This 3%-6% increase range makes it a core driving force supporting the detergent raw materials sector, with its growth corresponding to the recovery of downstream nylon industry demand.
2. Core Logic of Price Fluctuations: Supply-Demand Dynamics Dominate
The divergent price trends of chemical raw materials in early 2026 are essentially driven by supply-demand dynamics, with different varieties affected by distinct demand and supply factors.
2.1 Drivers of Price Declines: Off-Season Demand + Inventory Clearance
The downward pressure on methyl oleate, hydroxylamine sulfate, and tetraethylenepentamine mainly stems from off-season demand and industry destocking:
• Methyl oleate’s downstream applications are concentrated in surfactants and biodiesel. Currently, demand in both the surfactant and biodiesel industries is sluggish. Coupled with volatile and weakening crude oil prices that reduce cost support, methyl oleate prices have adjusted accordingly.
• Hydroxylamine sulfate and tetraethylenepentamine are both mainly used in the surfactant sector. In the off-season, there is no incremental demand, while stable supply has eased the previously tight market situation, leading to slight price adjustments.
2.2 Drivers of Price Increases: Demand Recovery + Supply Contraction
The price increases of sulfamic acid and adipic acid are supported by the combined effect of recovering demand and tight supply:
• Sulfamic acid is primarily applied in the detergent and electroplating industries. At the beginning of January, the gradual resumption of production in the electroplating industry, coupled with increased demand driven by stricter environmental standards in the water treatment industry, has boosted its consumption. On the supply side, environmental controls have led to stable production and tight supply, jointly pushing up sulfamic acid prices.
• Adipic acid prices rose due to two key factors: first, maintenance of some production facilities led to supply contraction; second, recovering orders in the downstream polyurethane and nylon industries drove up procurement demand. Tight supply-demand fundamentals support price increases, which also indirectly optimize the supply structure of surfactant production raw materials. Moreover, the continuous improvement in the supply-demand balance of the nylon industry in the medium to long term will further drive demand for adipic acid.
3. Trend Outlook: Short-Term Stability with Adjustments, Medium-to-Long-Term Recovery
3.1 Short-Term (Pre-Spring Festival): Narrow Fluctuations and Stable Operation
As the Spring Festival approaches, the industry is entering the final stage of pre-holiday stocking, and price fluctuations are expected to narrow further. For declining varieties such as methyl oleate, weak adjustments may continue but with a smaller magnitude of decline. Sulfamic acid and adipic acid, supported by recovering demand, are expected to maintain mild increases, providing neutral support for overall detergent production costs.
3.2 Medium-to-Long-Term (Post-Spring Festival): Shift to Recovery and Rebound
From mid-to-late January to the post-Spring Festival production resumption period in February, the market will gradually shift from the current "off-season adjustment" phase to a "recovery and rebound" phase. The surfactant and detergent industries will benefit from the recovery of terminal demand, and core raw materials such as sulfamic acid and adipic acid may continue their upward trend. Varieties like methyl oleate are expected to stop declining and rebound as downstream demand recovers.
Key Takeaways
Early 2026’s chemical market is characterized by off-season adjustments and divergent prices, with supply-demand dynamics being the core driving factor. The industry’s current focus on destocking limits the overall impact of price fluctuations on production costs. In the short term, the market will maintain stable operation with minor adjustments; in the medium to long term, the post-Spring Festival recovery of terminal demand is expected to drive a broader market rebound. For enterprises in the chemical, surfactant, and detergent industrial chains, closely monitoring pre-holiday stocking dynamics and post-holiday production resumption progress will be crucial for grasping market opportunities.
