Cost-Push Drives DOP Prices Above RMB 10,000 | China DOP Market Update

The domestic DOP (dioctyl phthalate) market has been on a continuous upward trend. Prices in South China and East China have successively broken through the 10,000 yuan/ton mark, hitting new highs since May 2026. As of September 7, East China DOP prices stood at 9,950–10,050 yuan/ton, South China DOP prices at 10,050–10,100 yuan/ton, and Shandong DOP prices at 9,700–9,800 yuan/ton. This analysis examines the extended duration of the recent DOP price rally and the subsequent market outlook.

Rally Driven by Rising Feedstock Costs

Since July, the domestic DOP market has generally shown an upward trend. Although there have been moderate pullbacks along the way, the downside has been relatively limited. The current round of increases, which began in late August, has been primarily driven by upstream raw material costs. Against the backdrop of geopolitical conflicts, international crude oil prices have remained elevated, boosting sentiment in the broader commodity market and among traders. This has spurred olefins and aromatics products, benefiting DOP feedstocks — 2-ethylhexanol (2-EH) and phthalic anhydride (PA).

Specifically, the DOP industry has long been in a loss-making position, so the rises in 2-EH and PA prices have directly supported the DOP market. In the 2-EH sector, some plant maintenance has reduced spot supply, and with propylene prices running high, 2-EH prices have been pushed up by cost support, with the East China market also rising above 9,000 yuan/ton. PA spot supply is tight, with most producers oversold; its feedstocks, orthoxylene and industrial naphthalene, have both strengthened, providing strong support for PA. East China ortho-xylene-based PA prices have risen to 9,400–9,500 yuan/ton. For DOP, both raw materials have moved up in tandem, intensifying cost pressure, leaving DOP merchants with no choice but to follow the price increases. Although DOP has continued to rise, it has not yet turned profitable, but industry losses have narrowed significantly.

Supply Control Provides Additional Support

The overall DOP operating rate is at a mid-to-upper level, with some units still shut down or running at reduced loads. Thus, supply control has also provided some support to the price uptrend. Given the prolonged losses in the DOP industry, producers' enthusiasm for production has been dampened, and downstream demand has not seen a substantial recovery. To avoid excessive inventory buildup, merchants have continued to cut operating rates and reduce output as a normal practice.

Demand Remains Tepid Despite the Peak Season

Now that the traditional “Golden September” peak season has arrived, end-user demand has not improved. Downstream buyers are still purchasing on a need-to-basis, and facing the ever-rising DOP market, their resistance to higher prices persists, with most taking a rational approach to chasing gains.

Near-Term Outlook and Medium-Term Risks

In the near term, the DOP market is expected to continue running at elevated levels with a strong bias. Tensions in the Middle East and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continue to support international oil prices, and external positive factors remain. With costs still robust, DOP prices are likely to see further upward attempts, but the upside may be limited due to lacklustre demand follow-through. Over the medium to longer term, caution is warranted against the risk of a pullback from peak levels.

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Disclaimer: This market analysis is published for industry reference only. It does not constitute a sales quotation or investment advice. Figures and views reflect the information available at the time of writing.