Blog Article: Strong Downstream Demand Drives MMA Price Rebound amid Tight Domestic Supply

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Core Market Indicators As of June 18

The overall MMA industry capacity utilization rate remained steady week-on-week at merely 37%, showing sustained tight supply across the domestic market. Downstream buyers hold a generally bullish expectation for future prices, and follow-up purchasing volumes keep rising continuously, pushing up overall market transaction activity.

In terms of mainstream spot prices on June 18:

• Shandong market factory delivery price for water purification channels: 15,500 yuan/ton

• East China market delivered price: 15,950 yuan/ton

Last week MMA prices underwent a sharp downward adjustment, and low quotations released long-suppressed downstream procurement demand. Sellers significantly cut discount willingness at the start of this week and began to raise offers tentatively. On Tuesday, Yantai Wanhua issued premium competitive bids, further boosting market confidence. To avoid the risk of further price hikes, downstream factories maintained active follow-up purchases, driving simultaneous growth of inquiry volume and actual deals, and greatly improving the overall trading atmosphere.

Key Factors Affecting Current MMA Market Trend

Raw Material Feedstock Price & Profit Data

Raw material costs maintained a relatively stable range this week without obvious upward pressure:

1. Tert-butanol price fluctuated narrowly; the low-end factory price in Shandong market stood around 6,800 yuan/ton.

2. Acetone cyanohydrin prices trended downward, with Northeast mainstream factory prices at 6,800 yuan/ton.

Calculated based on current feedstock prices, MMA production gross profits show obvious differentiation by process route:

• Acetone cyanohydrin process theoretical gross profit: 3,340 yuan/ton

• C4 process theoretical gross profit: 1,756 yuan/ton

Persistent Supply Shortage Restricts Market Supply

The core supply-side support factor comes from delayed resumption of Qixiang Tengda production lines. With the factory restart schedule postponed, the overall industry operating rate stays locked at 37%, and the tight supply situation cannot be relieved in the short term, providing strong bottom support for MMA spot prices.

Downstream Demand Contradiction: Short-term Stocking vs Off-season Pressure

Short-term pre-Thanksgiving inventory preparation demand forms powerful upward momentum for MMA. However, hidden demand pressure exists in the medium run: as MMA quotations keep climbing, downstream manufacturers’ cost bearing capacity gradually weakens, and terminal receiving enthusiasm will cool down along with the deepening of traditional off-season.

Next Week MMA Market Forecast

The MMA market will face a typical game between tight supply and weakening follow-up demand in the coming week:

1. Bullish support: Qixiang Tengda’s delayed restart keeps domestic supply tight, which will stop prices from falling sharply.

2. Bearish restraint: Continuous price increases will trigger downstream resistance, and terminal procurement enthusiasm will drop as the off-season deepens.

Comprehensive market analysis indicates that MMA will maintain an upward trend with limited space in the short run; prices will lack sufficient momentum for sharp surges under the restriction of insufficient terminal follow-up demand.

Conclusion

Mid-June MMA price rebound is jointly driven by pre-holiday stocking demand and tight low operating rate supply. Major manufacturers’ premium bids effectively lifted spot sentiment, while falling raw material prices kept production profits at a healthy level. Looking forward, although supply shortages will prevent a sharp price slump, downstream off-season demand resistance will cap the room for further gains. Traders and downstream processors need to reasonably arrange raw material stocking plans based on the balance of supply and demand cycles.