China Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) Market Q4 2025 Review & Q1 2026 Outlook: Volatility Driven by Supply-Demand Dynamics

China's Vinyl Acetate Monomer (VAM) market experienced notable volatility driven by supply and demand dynamics in the fourth quarter of 2025. The average price in East China, a key market hub, reached RMB 5,713.9 per tonne, representing a 3.8% quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) increase and a 1.2% year-on-year (YoY) rise. Monthly trends were distinct: October saw a sharp early price surge, November witnessed a pullback, and December resumed an upward trajectory. Looking ahead to Q1 2026, the market is expected to face short-term downward pressure in early January, followed by a potential rebound driven by pre-holiday restocking, with post-holiday prices likely to stabilize—subject to the startup schedule of new EVA capacity.

Q4 2025 VAM Market Breakdown by Month

October 2025: Early Price Surge Softened by Late Supply-Demand Shifts

October kicked off with a strong upward momentum in VAM prices, fueled by pre-holiday restocking activities from downstream sectors and unexpected plant shutdowns that tightened spot supply. However, the gains softened in the late month as previously shutdown plants resumed operations, easing supply constraints. Meanwhile, downstream demand started to weaken as some end-users completed restocking and adjusted production schedules. By the end of October, the monthly average price recorded a 7.9% increase compared to the previous month.

November 2025: Price Pullback Amid Weakened Costs, Stabilized Sentiment Late

November marked a reversal in the market trend, with VAM prices trending downward. The primary drivers were weakened raw material costs, which reduced production cost support, and the restart of key VAM plants that boosted market supply. Additionally, downstream demand softened further, putting downward pressure on prices. However, market sentiment stabilized in the late month following two key developments: Celanese’s temporary plant shutdown, which tightened supply again, and announcements of new EVA capacity startups (a major downstream demand driver for VAM). By the end of November, the monthly average price had declined by 3.2% from October.

December 2025: Rebound on Higher Raw Material Costs & Tightened Supply

December saw VAM prices climb again, supported by two core factors: rising raw material costs that strengthened cost-side support, and tightened supply due to operational issues at multiple VAM plants. On the demand side, large downstream customers maintained steady contract purchases, though overall demand remained seasonally soft. These dynamics pushed the December monthly average price up by 1.1% compared to November.

Key Q4 2025 Market Indicators

• Trade Flows: VAM trade volumes remained low and stable throughout Q4 2025, with no significant fluctuations in import/export dynamics affecting the domestic market balance.

• Profitability: Profit margins for VAM producers improved sharply across both main production routes (ethylene-based and acetylene-based) during the quarter. The ethylene-based route, in particular, benefited from optimized production efficiency and favorable raw material price ratios, driving stronger profitability.

Q1 2026 VAM Market Outlook

Looking ahead to the first quarter of 2026, the VAM market is expected to follow a "downward-then-rebound-then-stabilize" trajectory:     1. Early January: Potential downward pressure as market demand remains weak in the post-holiday lull, and supply remains sufficient.

2. Late January: A potential rebound driven by pre-holiday restocking activities from downstream sectors, which will boost short-term demand.

3. Post-holiday Period: Prices are expected to hold firm as downstream customers resume production and fulfill existing orders. The key variable will be the startup schedule of new EVA capacity—if new plants come online as planned, they will drive additional VAM demand and provide further support to prices.