Continuous Three Rounds of TDI Price Hikes by Wanhua amid Domestic Tight Supply
Late July 2026 witnesses persistent tight supply across China’s TDI market. Wanhua Chemical rolled out its third TDI price adjustment within July, lifting the fixed price by RMB 500/ton to RMB 16,800/ton cumulatively, with a total increase exceeding RMB 1,700 for the whole month.
The pricing adjustment process went through three clear phases: Wanhua set the early July benchmark at RMB 15,600/ton, raised it by RMB 700/ton in mid-July to RMB 16,300/ton, and added another RMB 500/ton hike in late July. Market tracking data from Maihuasu Research Institute showed East China mainstream TDI quotations climbed from RMB 15,600–15,800/ton at the start of July to RMB 16,400–16,800/ton by mid-month.
Multiple domestic production lines are restrained by overhaul schedules. Xinjiang Juli’s 200kt/year unit halted production for maintenance with zero available stocks. Wanhua’s two Fujian 360kt TDI plants run under one-operation-one-shutdown mode, continuously squeezing spot supply. Besides, Gansu Yinguang’s 150kt/year facility plans maintenance shutdown in early August. No new TDI capacity is scheduled to launch in H2 2026, and rotational plant maintenance will remain the mainstream industry pattern, forming solid supply-side support for market prices.
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Global Supply Shock: Wanhua Hungary TDI Plant Enters Long-Term Maintenance
Global TDI supply balance is severely disturbed by overseas factory overhaul. Wanhua’s 250kt/year Hungary TDI production line started scheduled maintenance on July 17, with a shutdown cycle of roughly 35 days. This facility is a core TDI supply source for the whole European region, and its offline status directly cuts regional spot circulation and worsens global supply shortages.
Europe already faces long-standing capacity limits triggered by sky-high energy costs, lacking spare output to fill the gap left by the Hungarian plant shutdown. Without extra imports from China, local furniture, bedding and automotive foam manufacturers will face raw material shortages in Q3 and Q4 2026. The sustained overseas supply contraction further amplifies China’s export substitution advantage in the global TDI trade landscape.
China TDI Exports Jumped 24.2% YoY in H1 2026, Maintaining Strong Resilience for H2
Customs statistics reveal China’s total TDI export volume reached 332,100 tons from January to June 2026, rising 24.2% year-on-year versus 267,300 tons in H1 2025. June single-month exports hit 56,600 tons, up 17.7% YoY and 22.5% month-on-month. China’s TDI export scale is far larger than import volume, hitting 152 times the inbound tonnage, marking clear export-oriented characteristics of domestic TDI industry.
Brazil took the top export destination with 29,600 tons, followed by Vietnam, Belgium, India and Indonesia. The top ten purchasing regions account for 54.7% of total shipments, with diversified sales layout and low reliance on single markets. Three core drivers fuel the sharp H1 export growth:
1. Global geopolitical tensions push up overseas energy and logistics costs; Chinese TDI stands out with stable supply chains and comprehensive cost edges to capture substitution orders.
2. India implemented zero import tariffs on TDI and polyether polyols from April 2 to June 30, stimulating robust order inflows to South Asia, Vietnam and Middle Eastern territories.
3. Middle East regional conflicts triggered panic bulk buying in April, pushing monthly exports to a record high of 74,600 tons, effectively digesting domestic inventory pressure and propping up domestic spot prices.
Looking forward to H2 2026, export growth pace will moderate compared with April’s explosive surge, yet overall shipment resilience remains solid. Middle East Sadara and Iranian production units carry massive operational uncertainties, while European capacity stays restrained by high energy expenditure. Although Southeast Asia enters off-season with weak near-term purchasing willingness, restocking demand will recover gradually. Near-sea markets are expected to place concentrated orders in early August, and EU & US buyers will launch centralized procurement in early September. The full-year export volume will keep growing on a year-on-year basis, albeit with slower growth rates.
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Full-Year Market Outlook: Limited Downside Risk, Autumn Price Rally Expected
Supply Side
Continuous maintenance waves will dominate the second half of the year: Xinjiang Juli in July, Gansu Yinguang in early August, Yantai Wanhua in September–October and Shanghai Korsun in Q4. Short-term spot supply will stay tight, while overall inventory levels will improve moderately versus H1.
Demand Side
Q3 is the traditional peak consumption season for furniture and flexible foam industries, bringing phased restocking demand. However, sluggish finished goods sales in H1 restrict the room for explosive demand recovery.
Price Trend Forecast
Industry insiders widely predict a second round of price uptrend starting September, which will sustain until mid-October before gradual correction. Current high prices face mild pullback pressure, yet widespread plant shutdowns and production curbs form strong bottom support, leaving limited downside space. The final market trajectory will be jointly determined by two core factors: the restart progress of overhauled production lines and actual terminal demand recovery strength.
