The TDI market has fallen first and then risen recently. With tight supply and surging overseas demand, prices may exceed 13,000 yuan/ton. BASF Korea delayed shipments, Wanhua Chemical raised its quotation, export orders hit a record high, and the Southeast Asian market continued to expand.
Recently, the TDI market has fluctuated violently, and prices have risen again when the decline is unclear. It is reported that BASF Korea's TDI plant has moved abnormally, shipments have been delayed, and supply in Southeast Asia is limited; Shanghai Covestro currently closed TDI, and TDI was raised to 12,700 yuan/ton a week ago. Wanhua Chemical's TDI distribution channel implemented a price of 13,500 yuan/ton in the second ten days of July, an increase of 1,000 yuan/ton, and reserves the right to adjust prices at any time. Affected by the maintenance of the plant and the fluctuation of the new plant, coupled with strong overseas demand, the supply continues to be tight. A few days ago, Wanhua Chemical said that there were oversupply orders in Southeast Asia. In order to ensure timely delivery of new orders, orders were temporarily suspended. The price of new TDI orders in July was planned to be raised by US$100/ton.
Supply side: Capacity contraction and geopolitical factors
Domestic capacity uncertainty has increased. Although there are new capacity plans, equipment stability problems have occurred frequently (such as rumors of Wanhua's maintenance in Xinjiang), and the actual supply increase may be lower than expected. Overseas capacity continues to withdraw, and the total overseas capacity in 2025 will decrease by about 5% year-on-year. Cost pressure in Europe and the United States has accelerated capacity contraction, and the price advantage of Chinese products (15-20% lower than Europe) has further highlighted. The US tariff policy has prompted companies to circumvent costs through Southeast Asian re-export trade. From April to May, China's exports to ASEAN surged by 120% year-on-year, and the proportion of re-export trade rose to 30%.
Demand side: Export explosion and emerging market potential
According to customs data, China's TDI exports reached 51,600 tons in May 2025, a record high for a single month, soaring 98.45% year-on-year. The main reason for the sharp year-on-year increase in exports is that the "export rush" effect caused by the US policy has driven a surge in short-term orders due to the stimulus of the tariff window period. At the same time, demand in Southeast Asia has expanded, local processing companies have concentrated on stocking up, and the annual demand growth rate has remained at 6-8%, making it China's core export market. China's TDI competitiveness in terms of cost and delivery cycle is difficult to be replaced, especially against the background of shrinking production capacity in Europe, and the export share is expected to increase in the long term.
