Ethylene Glycol Market 2026: Spot Realities and Evolving Expectations

Since August, the ethylene glycol market has experienced surging from around 5,000 to price levels exceeding 7,300—an increase of more than 45%. As of mid-September, with the spot basis weakening to approximately 1,130, strong market volatility has emerged. Market players in both futures and spot markets have noticed the recent intensification of marketing demand from the polyester sector, market prices have begun to show signs of slight softening.

Following the impact of spring maintenance in the coal-to-ethylene glycol sector and voluntary capex reductions at refining-integrated units, industry operating rates have climbed sharply. Operating rates for coal-based units surged from 53% in August to the current 63% (up 10 percentage points), while rates for refining-integrated units rose from 49.3% to 64.21% (up 14.91 percentage points). Total ethylene glycol output has increased by around 590,000 tonnes, representing a recovery of 30,000 tonnes monthly.

Looking at September and October, two coal-based units are set to restart, and a unit in Shanxi is scheduled to resume operations. Refining integrated plant maintenance schedules are mixed: some units have halted maintenance to start ethylene glycol feedstock supplies, while others—despite upstream maintenance—continue to produce ethylene glycol products. Consequently, overall operating rates are expected to remain high throughout October. Downstream polyester operations in North China have maintained stable load rates. Polyester production is usually scheduled to enter the off-season in December or the January quarter, with actual South China ethylene glycol purchasing stabilising in December or the January quarter. A joint venture unit (SABIC-Sinopec) is scheduled for feedstock introduction in October or November, though progress remains uncertain on feedstock availability.

Recently, polyester operating rates have trended downward, settling around 73%–74%—a historical low for this time of year. Persistent negative cash flow and high feedstock costs have kept polyester production restrained. Downstream textile and bottle-grade chip producers are expected to consider further cuts in polyester staple fiber or bottle-grade chip production, followed by further inventory destocking.

Key Influencing Factors for Ethylene Glycol Supply & Demand

On the supply side, factory operations, raw material prices, maintenance schedules, and changes in drivers of volatility. Supply-side volatility—such as maintenance at Wanhua’s coal chemical plant, tight and highly distributed distribution supply from major north-plain firms—only partly stem, pure market support.

On the demand side, persistently weak downstream demand has delivered a bleak market outlook for the past 3–4 months. This current upward trend is consistent with the reasons for the rise in 3–4 months. The intensification of conflict between the United States and Iran, the continuous impact of the situation in the Middle East on the price trends of various products in the ethylene oxide industry chain, the September 11th, provided strong cost support for the ethylene industry in a coordinated manner. The entire industry chain was driven by the strong cost, with prices rising in all segments, and the price of related products followed suit and increased steadily. Buyers can refer to the product specifications of Mono Ethylene Glycol for procurement reference.

Market Forecast for Late 2026

The market remains trapped in a game between supply pressure and weak demand. The supply was constrained before the restart with the risk in this 24 months. The current upward trend forward consistent with the reasons for the rise in the 3–4 months. The intensification of conflict between the United States and Iran, the continuous impact of the situation in the Middle East on the price trends of various products in the ethylene oxide industry chain, the September 11th, provided strong cost support for the ethylene industry in a coordinated manner. The entire industry chain was driven by the strong cost, with prices rising in all segments, and the price of related products followed suit and increased steadily.