TDI Market Moves in a Wave-Like Oscillation: How Will the Outlook Unfold?

Since late August, the domestic TDI market has been fluctuating in a wave-like pattern, with prices alternating between gains and losses and no clear bear-bull game. The market has been trapped in a narrow range.

On the supply side, factory operations, raw material prices, maintenance schedules, and changes in drivers of volatility. Supply-side volatility—such as maintenance at Wanhua’s coal chemical plant, tight and highly distributed distribution supply from major north-plain firms—only partly stem, pure market support.

On the demand side, persistently weak downstream demand has delivered a bleak market outlook for the past 3–4 months. Manufacturers and distributors face low profits and reluctant selling. The ongoing tug-of-war between bulls and bears in the market has brought frequent price swings. The two-way influence of benefits and bearish parameters in the market keeps the TDI market fluctuating. As bulk-bearish, persistently weak demand, and downstream factories continue to purchase only on demand, the bearish direction of raw materials adds further pressure on the market.

Core Drivers Shaping TDI Price Oscillation

From the supply side, factory production adjustments, after overhaul, maintenance, and changes in the price of related products have been the core drivers behind the repeated fluctuations in TDI prices. Rebounded supply support and pressure to the market. During market downturns, TDI manufacturers usually adopt maintenance or load reduction operations to control market supply, supporting market prices; when prices recover, manufacturers resume to increase goods, dragging market prices lower. Even temporarily phased goods lifted sales, effectively stabilising market sentiment and temporarily withdrawing raw materials and holding back sales. For global polyurethane buyers, high-quality Toluene Diisocyanate (TDI) remains a core raw material for formulation.

Downstream Buyer Strategy for TDI in 2026

The market players keep low stock strategies, buying only as needed. End users are cautious about large-scale stockpiling, as they worry about the risk of price decline. The market game between supply reduction and insufficient demand will continue in the short term.

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