At present, the cost side serves as the primary support for the market. With the costs of raw materials—such as calcium carbide and coal—remaining persistently high, the baseline production cost for PVC has shifted upward, providing a solid floor for spot prices. Conversely, sustained weakness in demand hinders the pass-through of these costs; lackluster end-user demand and a shortage of new orders limit any potential upside, suggesting that the market is likely to remain range-bound at a relatively high level. Buyers can review the PVC Resin product range for specifications.
Spot Prices Fluctuate Upward
In October, the domestic PVC market experienced range-bound fluctuations with an overall upward trend, amid a persistent pattern of weak supply and demand. With PVC producers continuing to incur losses, an increasing number of companies opted for facility maintenance or reduced operating rates throughout the month; this contraction in supply provided a floor for market prices.
On the demand side, the traditional “Golden September, Silver October” peak season failed to meet expectations. Downstream orders for pipes and profiles remained sluggish, and operating rates among downstream manufacturers stayed low. Procurement was largely limited to immediate, as-needed purchases; following price increases, transaction volumes dipped as end-users adopted a more cautious, “wait-and-see” approach. As of October 23, the mainstream price for SG-5 PVC in Changzhou stood at 4,990 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.83% month-on-month.
Declining Operating Rates Among Upstream Producers
On the supply side, cost pressures have continued to dampen the incentive for PVC production. Domestic PVC capacity utilization rates fell further this week, as some producers—facing insufficient profit margins—proactively reduced operating loads or initiated periodic maintenance, limiting any potential increase in market supply. Profit margins across the PVC industry remain under sustained compression. In particular, producers using the ethylene-based process are highly sensitive to crude oil prices; with both crude oil and ethylene prices remaining elevated, these companies show little willingness to produce, fueling ongoing expectations of a supply-side contraction.
As of October 22, the weekly capacity utilization rate for PVC producers—weighed down by industry-wide losses—hit its lowest level since December 25, 2015, at 61.86% (down 2.74% month-on-month and 14.71% year-on-year). Specifically, the utilization rate for the calcium carbide-based process stood at 66.60% (down 3.06% month-on-month and 7.77% year-on-year), while the rate for the ethylene-based process was 50.80% (down 1.98% month-on-month and 30.84% year-on-year). Given the production cuts in the ethylene-based segment, capacity utilization rates are expected to continue their downward trend next week. Regarding inventory, driven by a reduction in supply, industry-wide inventories have continued to decline. Both manufacturer inventories and social (third-party/market) inventories have decreased, slightly easing the pressure from excess stock.
Demand Remains Sluggish and Stable
There has been no sign of a significant surge in demand, which would typically characterize a peak season. Downstream PVC consumption is concentrated in construction materials—such as pipes, profiles, and sheets—and is highly correlated with real estate completions and infrastructure projects. Currently, downstream manufacturers are seeing limited growth in new orders, and operating rates remain low. Procurement is generally restricted to immediate, essential needs, with little appetite for large-scale stockpiling. While there have been some periodic, small-scale replenishment orders, a broad-based recovery in demand has yet to materialize, providing little upward momentum for the market. As of October 22, 2026, the operating rate among a sample of domestic PVC pipe manufacturers stood at 31.80%—an increase of 1.80% month-on-month, but a decline of 9.40% year-on-year.
Summary and Outlook
In summary, production costs currently serve as the primary support for the market. High prices for raw materials like calcium carbide and coal have pushed up the cost base for PVC production, providing a solid floor for spot prices. Conversely, persistent weakness in demand creates resistance to passing these costs further down the supply chain. Sluggish end-user demand and a lack of new orders are capping any potential price gains; consequently, the market is likely to experience fluctuations within a high range. Prices for calcium carbide-based PVC (Type 5) in Changzhou—on a spot, ex-warehouse basis—are expected to fluctuate between 4,900 and 5,100 yuan per ton. Key factors to monitor moving forward include: fluctuations in upstream raw material prices; changes in operating rates across the industry (including ethylene-based PVC producers); and shifts in order volumes and operating rates among downstream manufacturers.
