In November, PVC prices fluctuated and edged lower. Driven by energy market volatility, ethylene prices rose while electricity prices fell. With supply providing short-term support and demand remaining weak, prices are expected to continue trading within a range. Market participants should closely watch energy price fluctuations, upstream production facilities and export orders. Our PVC resin DG-1000S range covers both pipe-grade and general-purpose applications.
Supply: Producers Cut Output, Ethylene Method Under Pressure
The core bullish factor this week came from voluntary production cuts. Affected by negative margins, PVC producers continued to reduce operating rates, with ethylene-method plants in particular maintaining low loads. Ethylene-method enterprise operating rates fell 3.88% this week to 43.28%, down 36.42% year-on-year. Overall industry supply remains low. Ethylene-method cuts have been more pronounced recently; combined with rising ethylene feedstock prices, producers have a stronger willingness to raise prices, and spot quotes held firm and rose.
For the carbide method, costs track energy sentiment more closely: weaker crude oil drove risk-off sentiment, futures came under pressure, and carbide-method prices fell notably, widening the PVC ethylene-carbide spread again. From the current cost perspective, upstream plant loads are unlikely to rise, and supply is expected to contract further, providing a floor for spot prices.
Inventory: Destocking Continues but Absolute Level Still High
Supported by continued upstream production cuts, social inventory extended its destocking pace this week. The driver was supply contraction rather than a surge in end-user buying, with downstream purchasing mainly on a need-to-buy basis. As of November 5, weekly PVC social inventory stood at 944,600 tons, down 3.35% week-on-week and down 9.32% year-on-year. The absolute level has not yet fallen into a low range, making a strong rally difficult. Export inquiry sentiment improved slightly during the week, but incremental volume was limited and insufficient to reverse the overall quiet, stable pattern.
Demand: Off-Season Caps Upside, Exports Improve but Volume Limited
Demand remains the main suppressing factor. The PVC market has entered its traditional off-season, with both domestic and export demand broadly quiet. Domestic downstream manufacturers maintained low operating rates with insufficient order follow-through, mostly buying as needed. Resistance to high-priced feedstock is evident, and sustained restocking momentum is lacking. As of November 4, 2026, the operating rate of sampled domestic PVC pipe enterprises stood at 34.00%, up 0.40% week-on-week but down 5.40% year-on-year. Although overseas inquiries increased, actual transaction volume did not expand notably. Despite persistently weak demand, supply reductions have cushioned prices, while off-season demand caps gains.
Outlook: Range-Bound Trading Likely
Supply and Inventory
Short-term PVC is likely to remain range-bound. Affected by production cuts and maintenance, industry output will stay low with limited room for a significant near-term increase, providing a floor for prices. Process divergence will continue: ethylene-method plants keep reducing output, and with ethylene feedstock rising, quotes remain firm. Supported by supply contraction, the industry continues its destocking pace.
Demand and Cost Risks
Demand remains the main suppressing factor: during the traditional off-season, orders for downstream profiles and pipes are weak, product operating rates are low, enterprises buy mainly for immediate needs, hoarding willingness is insufficient, and both domestic and export demand are broadly quiet. On the cost side, geopolitical factors are causing large energy price swings, driving repeated shifts in futures sentiment. Energy fluctuations bring periodic disturbances, but geopolitical uncertainty persists and cost support remains; combined with low supply, PVC’s downside is limited. Key focus areas going forward include energy price trends, plant restart schedules, downstream operating rates and changes in export orders.
