MMA | 2026 MMA Industry Outlook: Growth in Both Capacity and Output; Self‑Sufficiency Rate Poised to Exceed 120% | Industry Analysis

Expanding Domestic MMA Capacity and Output: Five‑Year Compound Growth Figures

China’s domestic methyl methacrylate (MMA) supply landscape has undergone profound transformation from 2022 to 2026, driven by continuous capacity expansion. By the end of 2026, the five‑year compound annual growth rates for MMA production capacity and output are forecast to hit 8% and 14% respectively.

According to monitoring data from Longzhong Information, as of August 2026, domestic MMA capacity reached 2.955 million tonnes while output stood at 1.2632 million tonnes, rising 3.50% and 8.19% year‑on‑year. One new market participant added 100,000 tonnes of fresh capacity. Production volumes climbed on the back of expanded capacity base, while capacity utilisation levels remained comparatively stable. Full‑year 2026 output is projected to land within 1.92‑1.95 million tonnes, representing more than 5% year‑on‑year growth.

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MMA Self‑Sufficiency Rate Stays Above 101% Amid Output Expansion

Supported by steady domestic production growth between 2022 and 2026, China’s MMA self‑sufficiency rate has fluctuated in the range of 101%‑125%. The indicator trended upward through 2022‑2025. Driven by substantial production increases, self‑sufficiency peaked at 118.81% in 2024. Although output kept growing in 2025, apparent consumption rose even faster, pulling the self‑sufficiency rate down to 110.86%.

For 2026, MMA production growth has slowed slightly, yet apparent consumption has fallen short of prior market expectations. As a result, the domestic self‑sufficiency rate is expected to climb further and break above 120%.

High Self‑Sufficiency Reshapes MMA Import‑Export Patterns

Persistent self‑sufficiency rates above 100% have fundamentally reshaped China’s MMA import and export landscape. Starting in 2023, annual methacrylate import volumes have remained below 100,000 tonnes, and imports are set to drop further in 2026, demonstrating low reliance on overseas supply.

On the export side, 2024 saw export volume surge 115.51% alongside higher prices. This sharp upturn stemmed from overseas plant force majeure and permanent shutdowns, plus arbitrage opportunities created by domestic price levels; exports became a critical supporting pillar for the domestic MMA market. In 2025, softer global trade conditions triggered export volume pull‑back. Combined with sharp domestic output expansion, average market prices dropped noticeably.

Looking ahead to 2026, ongoing geopolitical tensions will deliver stronger cost support and push export volumes higher, facilitating a recovery in annual average MMA prices.

Supply‑Demand Fundamentals Determine MMA Price Movements

Self‑sufficiency shifts and import‑export swings are closely correlated with MMA price cycles. Historical market performance shows export surges in 2021 and 2024 coincided with major price rallies, while export declines during 2022‑2023 and 2025 aligned with annual price falls.

All changes in domestic production, import volumes and export flows sit within the broader supply‑demand framework. Ultimately, fundamental supply and demand dynamics remain the core driver for MMA market trends.

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