Polyurethane Market Recovered Unevenly in July with Mixed August Outlook | China PU Raw‑Material Analysis

July China PU Market: Mixed Price Rebounds Driven by Cost and Supply Factors

China’s core polyurethane products delivered differentiated price recovery across July. Compared with June, TDI, polymeric MDI and flexible slabstock polyols achieved notable price increases, climbing approximately CNY 1,201/tonne, CNY 988/tonne and CNY 544/tonne respectively. Propylene oxide (PO) and rigid polyols registered mild upticks, while monthly‑average monomeric MDI prices fell month‑on‑month by around CNY 568/tonne.

The market upturn was primarily backed by rising raw‑material costs and tightened product supply. Downstream activity existed but was limited to periodic moderate restocking, lacking sufficient momentum to sustain long‑term sharp price surges. Mid‑month saw rapid offer hikes for certain PU materials and active restocking from traders and end‑users, lifting short‑term transaction volumes. By late July, acceptance for high prices faded; wait‑and‑see sentiment spread and partial price concessions emerged, proving demand recovery remained tepid.

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PO & Polyether Polyols: Constrained Downstream Acceptance for Cost Transfer

Propylene oxide’s price center edged higher in July with a monthly average gain of roughly CNY 75/tonne versus June. Driven by higher propylene prices, plant operational fluctuations and tightened supply, PO jumped sharply in mid‑July, pulling polyether polyol offers upward accordingly.

Flexible slabstock polyols posted far larger gains, representing a rebound from earlier low price levels. Rigid polyols saw modest rises, reflecting inconsistent purchasing willingness among different downstream application sectors.

Cost pass‑through for polyether polyols remained challenging. End‑use industries covering sponge, construction materials, automotive and cold‑chain foaming maintained mainly just‑in‑time purchases plus periodic stock replenishment. After PO surged, downstream resistance to high‑priced polyether polyols grew, creating obstacles for manufacturers to fully transfer increased feed‑stock expenses.

MDI and TDI: Supply Shortages Amplify Price Volatility

Price rallies for MDI and TDI were predominantly supply‑led. Plant maintenance, intentional output control from suppliers and low inventory levels strengthened sellers’ bargaining power, pushing prices up faster than the recovery pace of end‑user consumption.

Segment divergence appeared within the MDI segment. Though partial regional offers rebounded at month‑end, monomeric MDI’s monthly average still fell from June. The gap comes from varied product specifications and disparate demand performance across downstream industries.

August Market Outlook: Multiple Variables to Determine Price Trajectory

The August polyurethane market will be shaped by intertwined factors of supply conditions, crude‑linked feed‑stock cost swings and export performance.

Some units that underwent maintenance in July are set to restart, which may slightly ease supply tightness. Meanwhile, geopolitical risks keep crude oil and key chemical feedstocks volatile; firm raw‑material costs can offer price floor support even without robust domestic demand improvement.

Export conditions also require close observation. Exports relieved domestic supply pressure for polyether polyols and MDI during H1 2026. Yet climbing freight costs, extended shipping cycles or slowing overseas procurement will weaken this export buffer. The August market is expected to keep high‑level fluctuations with obvious differences between individual PU products, as costs, supply, export volumes and real‑world consumption interact continuously.

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