Recently, the pure benzene market has been fluctuating. Sinopec has slightly lowered the price of caprolactam, and the price of sulfur continues to decline, weakening cost support for caprolactam. The supply side has slightly reduced production to maintain a weak balance. Downstream polymer and weaving production remains stable, but terminal demand is weak and purchasing is cautious. The caprolactam market is under pressure, and the spot price has slightly declined. Buyers can check the Cyclohexanone page for related raw-material supply.
Weakening Cost Support: Pure Benzene and Sulfur
Pure benzene: In recent weeks, the pure benzene market has been fluctuating, with the overall price slightly decreasing. The spot price of pure benzene in the East China market fluctuated and dropped last week, with the negotiation range at 10,100–10,530 yuan/ton. Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price was lowered by 200 to 10,600 yuan/ton. On the supply side, some refineries are maintaining a defensive reduction due to raw material constraints, but previously shut-down production units have gradually returned, and overall production has risen compared with the previous period. Imports have been replenished; although port inventory is still at a low level, the destocking pace has slowed down. Main downstream products show strong resistance to high-priced raw materials, and purchases are mainly based on urgent needs. Overall, the weakening of cost support and demand caused the price of pure benzene to fluctuate downward last week.
Sulfur: In recent days, the domestic sulfur market has continued to show weakness. As of last Thursday, the mainstream particle price at Zhenjiang Port was 5,550 yuan/ton, down 1,050 yuan/ton from the previous week (6,600 yuan/ton), a decrease of 15.91%. Sulfur market operators have a bearish sentiment, and the price has continued to decline. The overall cost support for caprolactam is weak, negatively impacting the mentality of downstream enterprises.
Supply Remains Weakly Balanced After Slight Production Reductions
After October, some caprolactam production units have slightly reduced production. Companies such as Hunan Petrochemical, Baoli Hengyi, Lu Xi Chemical, and Pingmei What have reduced production to varying degrees. The Lu Nan Chemical plant is still in maintenance and shutdown. Last week, the output of caprolactam was 121,500 tons, a decrease of 0.13 million tons compared with the previous week, with a capacity utilization rate of 70.03%, a decrease of 0.75 percentage points. The supply of caprolactam is in a weakly balanced situation.
The inventory of caprolactam enterprises has slightly decreased, but the destocking intensity is limited. Currently, the inventory stands at 44,000 tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons, a reduction of 3.30%. Although inventory has slightly declined, due to the still-slow purchasing rhythm of downstream raw materials, some enterprises still face certain sales pressure, which restrains the spot price.
Cautious Downstream and Slow Raw-Material Purchasing
At present, the capacity utilization rate of PA6 cutting stock is 62.01%, and the weekly output is 116,300 tons. The operation of nylon filament is 67%, with no change from the previous week. The domestic weaving industry’s operation rate is 51.38%, a slight decrease of 0.29 percentage points. The demand side maintains urgent purchases, and the terminal market has no obvious recovery. Polymer enterprises mainly purchase on an as-needed basis, with a tendency to negotiate prices lower, and a weak overall purchasing atmosphere. The acceptance of high-priced raw materials is limited.
Outlook: Cost, Supply and Demand in Late October and November
On cost, pure benzene has a high-level strong expectation. This week, the estimated price of pure benzene in the East China region is 10,300–10,700 yuan/ton. International oil prices still have potential upward space, providing certain support from the raw material side, though resistance to the downward transmission of high-priced raw materials remains. On supply and demand, the operation of caprolactam production units may remain stable in the short term; in November and December there are some plans for increases or decreases, including Lu Nan Chemical’s plan to restart in November, Yongrong Technology’s one line planned for maintenance in November, and Tianchen Yaolong’s plant planned for maintenance in December. From the end of October to November, there is still certain supply pressure on the supply side.
In terms of demand, the mindset of enterprises is generally pessimistic. Raw-material procurement remains cautious, and the price-cutting purchase model continues. It is expected that the demand side will still exert negative pressure on the market later on. Overall, in late October the caprolactam market was supported by the high level of pure benzene prices, but the supply-demand competition situation constrained the market, and supply pressure may increase in November. It is expected that the caprolactam market at the end of October may still operate with slightly weaker pressure. Subsequently, key factors to track include fluctuations in crude oil and pure benzene prices, changes in the maintenance schedules of caprolactam enterprises’ facilities, actual orders from downstream terminals, and the pace of raw-material procurement.
