In 2026, propylene prices surged past RMB 11,700/ton in Shandong, a 12-year high, driven by rising feedstock costs (propane, naphtha, methanol), tightened supply as PDH producers cut rates (industry utilization down to 69.59%), and restocking ahead of Double 11. Acrylic acid followed with a 9.34% monthly gain to RMB 9,366.67/ton, pressured by propylene cost pass-through, October maintenance, and strong seasonal demand from waterborne coatings. Buyers can source Acrylic Acid through our supply network.
An Extreme Rally That Exceeded Most Expectations
In 2026, the energy and chemical industry is staging an extreme market rally that has exceeded most expectations. Propylene, the core raw material, has directly broken through a 12-year price high, and the price center of gravity across the entire industrial chain is being continuously pushed upward. As of the end of October, mainstream spot propylene quotes in the Shandong region had climbed above RMB 11,700/ton, refreshing the historical peak since 2014. The largest single-day gain during the month once exceeded 6%, and “propylene has gone crazy” has become the most hotly discussed topic in China’s chemical industry circles recently. As a key hub connecting the upstream energy end and downstream manufacturing, propylene price fluctuations are transmitted layer by layer along the industrial chain, ultimately affecting production costs in dozens of downstream industries such as packaging, building materials, automobiles, and textiles.
Three Forces Push Propylene to a 12-Year High
This round of extreme propylene price increases is not short-term speculation driven by a single factor, but the result of the resonance of three factors: cost, supply, and sentiment.
The cost side provides hard support and seals off downside room: the core raw materials of the three mainstream propylene routes—oil-based, PDH, and coal-based—namely propane, naphtha, and methanol, all rose across the board in the third quarter. Since the beginning of October alone, propylene production costs have been directly pushed up by more than 8%, and costs across the entire chain have moved up simultaneously. Production enterprises have no room to cut prices at all.
The supply side actively contracts and spot supply tightens: the surge in raw materials directly turned the profits of many PDH enterprises negative, forcing them to reduce operating rates. At present, the capacity utilization rate of the entire domestic industry has fallen to 69.59%. Multiple units in Hebei, Shandong, and other places have been shut down for maintenance, and the amount of propylene spot circulating in the market continues to decrease.
Restocking sentiment amplifies and pushes up the market: approaching Double 11, orders in food packaging, daily necessities, and small household appliances were released in a concentrated manner, driving downstream polypropylene enterprises to restock in a concentrated way. In late October, traders scrambling for goods and downstream factories locking in orders in advance appeared in a concentrated manner, jointly pushing propylene prices to a historical high not seen in 12 years.
Acrylic Acid Follows with a 9% Rise, Waterborne Coatings Raw Material Costs Under Pressure
As one of the most core downstream derivatives of propylene, the price trend of acrylic acid has completely kept pace with the upstream price increase rhythm. On October 1, the SunSirs benchmark reference price for acrylic acid was RMB 8,566.67/ton; by October 31, it had firmly stood at RMB 9,366.67/ton, with a cumulative increase of 9.34% for the month. Mainstream quotes in the East China market comprehensively broke through the RMB 9,000/ton mark, and the price center continued to move upward throughout the month.
This round of acrylic acid increase is likewise the result of the combined effect of supply and demand. Cost transmission from upstream propylene directly compressed the profit space of acrylic acid enterprises. Multiple domestic acrylic acid units entered a phased maintenance cycle in October, the industry operating rate was lowered, and the amount of spot circulating in the market contracted simultaneously. In addition, October is the traditional peak season for coatings construction, and downstream waterborne emulsion enterprises concentrated on stocking for rigid demand. After the new mandatory national standard for VOCs in waterborne coatings took effect, the release of compliant capacity also brought new raw material demand, further widening the supply-demand gap and ultimately driving acrylic acid prices to continue strengthening.
It is worth noting that the domestic acrylic acid industry had previously been in a cycle of concentrated capacity release: in 2025, China’s total acrylic acid capacity reached 4.59 million tons/year, an increase of 510,000 tons compared with 2024. New units from leading enterprises such as Wanhua Chemical and BASF Zhanjiang were put into operation one after another, and the industry had originally expected acrylic acid prices to continue a downward trend in 2026. The extreme rise in propylene directly broke this supply-demand logic and reversed what had originally been a loose market pattern.
Where Will the Market Go in November?
In the short term, as long as the high-level pattern of international crude oil and propane is not broken, the cost support for propylene will not disappear. Before the units that were previously shut down for maintenance are restarted in a concentrated manner, the tight spot market situation will continue. For downstream waterborne coatings enterprises, the cost-effectiveness of blindly chasing highs and stocking up is already extremely low. On the basis of procurement for rigid demand, appropriately extending the procurement cycle and flexibly adjusting inventory rhythm may be the most prudent choice for responding to this round of extreme raw material market conditions.
