In September 2026, the domestic PVC market exhibited a “V-shaped” fluctuation pattern. Prices underwent a periodic recovery against a backdrop of weak market fundamentals; the market was driven by sluggish conditions on both the supply and demand sides, compounded by cost fluctuations. Buyers sourcing commodity-grade resin can review the PVC Resin product range for standard K-value grades.
Production Cuts Keep Output at Low Levels
Statistics show that the production capacity of PVC enterprises undergoing maintenance in September totaled 11.19 million tonnes, a year-on-year increase of 40.75%. Following increases in April and May, production cuts in the ethylene-based PVC sector expanded further; by the end of September, the capacity utilization rate for ethylene-based PVC had dropped to 54.48%, down 25.27% year-on-year.
Driven by maintenance and production cuts at manufacturing plants, domestic PVC output in September stood at 1.7656 million tonnes—the lowest monthly figure since June 2023. This represented a month-on-month decline of 6.41% and a year-on-year drop of 13.06%. Cumulative output for the January–September period totaled 17.5404 million tonnes, down 3.18% year-on-year. Specifically, output from the calcium carbide process was 1.3093 million tonnes (down 3.55% month-on-month and 9.03% year-on-year), while output from the ethylene process was 0.4563 million tonnes (down 13.75% month-on-month and 22.85% year-on-year).
Weak Domestic Demand Amid a Disappointing Peak Season
On the demand side, downstream orders during the traditional “Golden September” peak season fell short of expectations. With the real estate sector still undergoing deep structural adjustments, pipe and profile manufacturers primarily engaged in on-demand purchasing; aside from moderate restocking when prices were low, there was generally a cautious attitude toward inventory accumulation. Average downstream operating rates remained low, and there was insufficient momentum from end-user demand.
Regarding exports, PVC prices in the European market trended downward in September due to rising raw material and energy costs. Key factors included weak demand and ample supply, compounded by concerns over potential anti-dumping duties, all of which made the European market more cautious regarding imports. Domestic PVC markets across Southeast Asia saw varying degrees of price increases in September; however, they face future pressure from weak downstream demand. In the long run, resilient infrastructure demand in emerging markets—such as Southeast Asia and the Middle East—partially offsets export constraints caused by sluggish demand in India and high shipping costs. Export orders remain relatively optimistic, providing periodic support for the reduction of domestic inventories.
Dual Cost Support Sustains Market Volatility
Entering October, the scale of maintenance shutdowns at PVC production plants decreased by 28.95% month-on-month; however, production cuts driven by cost-related losses in the ethylene-based sector persist. Capacity utilization is expected to hover around 50% for the month, resulting in a further decline in output compared to September. As October is a traditional peak season for demand—and with the implementation of national policies subsidizing residential mortgage interest rates—there is room for downstream operating rates to rebound post-holiday, boosting market sentiment. However, given intensifying regional trade barriers in overseas markets, significant further expansion of exports remains difficult. The landscape of weak supply and weak demand continues, and the fundamentals lack the strength for a sustained, one-sided rally.
Prices for upstream basic energy sources and monomers—including coal, crude oil, calcium carbide, and ethylene—remain firm. Notably, contract prices for ethylene monomer for October and November are high; ethylene-based PVC producers are generally operating at a loss, with gross margins exceeding -13%, indicating strong cost-based support for price floors. Furthermore, significant losses are curbing production activity, meaning cost factors are exerting substantial pressure to limit PVC supply. This dual upward pressure on PVC prices—particularly for the ethylene-based segment—stemming from high costs is expected to continue throughout October.
